WeatherTiger’s initial forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season offers limited hope of more typical threats in the year ahead. Our seasonal forecasting algorithm projects a most likely outcome of around 155% of average activity.
It’s time for WeatherTiger’s look back on the 2021 hurricane season, which again brought misery to the Gulf Coast, this time while Jeff Bezos took short, pointless trips to space.
Two factors have strongest historical relationship with late season tropical activity: Atlantic SSTs, and El Niño/La Niña state in the Pacific. Both Atlantic and Pacific support an extended hurricane season in fall 2021, but are fortunately not as favorable as they were in heading into late 2020.
WeatherTiger’s August Atlantic hurricane season outlook is out now. It continues to call for an active season, with most likely ACE ~50% above normal. Analogs suggest steering may favor elevated U.S. and Florida landfall risks in October. Overall: get ready. Tropical go-time is almost here.
WeatherTiger’s expectations for the 2021 hurricane season shifted higher over the last two months, but remain shy of last spring’s (accurate) prediction for a hyperactive 2020. The most likely outcome is tropical activity around 40% above the average hurricane season.
WeatherTiger’s first look at the 2021 hurricane season is for a 35-40% chance of a near normal year, with a 30-35% chance of below normal and 30% chance of above normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast for 100% of average hurricane season activity, or around 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The 2020 hurricane season dramatically underscored the rising vulnerabilities of the United States’ increasingly crowded coasts. Phenomena like early- and late-season activity in defiance of climatology, head-spinning rapid intensification through to landfall, and extreme flooding from stalled and slow-moving storms, all with minimal historical precedent, became numbingly normal. Still, despite ripping up the record books, this season somehow avoided the absolute worst-case scenarios for most of the U.S. coastline.
WeatherTiger’s outlook for the fall months of the Atlantic hurricane season is for above average chances of elevated activity. We expect net ACE to be at least 50% above normal, and it could easily be twice or more typical values.
WeatherTiger’s August outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 85-90% chance of an above average year, with a 10-15% chance of near-normal and almost no chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast remains about 180% of average hurricane season activity, or around 21-24 named storms, 9-12 hurricanes and 4-6 major hurricanes.
WeatherTiger’s June outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 75-80% chance of an above average year, with a 15-20% chance of near-normal and just a 5% chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast is about 180% of average hurricane season activity, or around 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes.