WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer model is little changed in September. We remain confident that ENSO stays in neutral through fall, with El Niño slightly more likely than a La Niña over the winter but ENSO neutral expected into early 2020.
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The equatorial Pacific remains in El Niño territory, a warmth continuing to be concentrated in the Central Pacific region. There has been a slow warming over the past several weeks, and Pacific warmth will likely peak over the next few months. The ocean and atmosphere system has been slow to lock into a classic +ENSO pattern, and our model has nudged lower with the maximum strength of the El Niño, which is now predicted to fade in the spring.