Mid-day Model Update

This page has daily 12Z model output discussion as it comes in. Discussion updated Monday-Friday by 12:00 NOON.

HEADLINE: GFS ADVANCES MULTIPLE RAIN/SNOW THREATS FOR CENTRAL U.S. NEXT WEEK…

North America: The 12z GFS is little changed from previous runs on days 1-5 with the initial two disturbances, mostly rainmakers. The Tuesday-Wednesday rain east/snow west storm has shifted a little further east towards the ensemble mean, but remains a vigorous system. This run is faster to bring in the next rain/snow event in the Plains by Friday and Saturday of next week than previous runs.

South America: This run is weaker with subtropical ridging and further north with frontal precip into north central Brazil early in week 2. The GFS continues to be weaker than the Euro with this ridge.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut
President/Chief Meteorologist