The Pacific is currently split between lingering warmth west and coolness in the east, and atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect a neutral ENSO state. WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer output is little changed in October, using September inputs. We remain confident that ENSO will stay in neutral conditions through the rest of 2019 and into early 2020.
WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer model is little changed in September. We remain confident that ENSO stays in neutral through fall, with El Niño slightly more likely than a La Niña over the winter but ENSO neutral expected into early 2020.
The 2019 El Niño is officially gone as NOAA has declared the end of a weak ENSO-positive event as of last week. The Pacific is currently split between lingering warmth west and an almost Niña-like coolness in the east, and atmospheric conditions are generally reflecting a neutral ENSO state. We remain confident that ENSO will stay neutral conditions through fall.
Weak El Niño conditions continue, mainly focused across the central and western Pacific. The past month has seen a volatility rollercoaster in El Niño indices, as weak atmospheric feedback to this non-traditional +ENSO leaves the event close to collapse in early summer.
The Pacific remains in official El Niño conditions, with the warmest anomalies remaining in the central rather than the eastern Pacific. Atmospheric confirmation signals in trade winds are still weak, and warm water at depth in the central Pacific has moderated significantly in the last month as upwelling has increased.
The equatorial Pacific remains in officially declared El Niño conditions, with the warmest anomalies relative to normal in the central rather than the eastern Pacific, as has been the case since last fall. Atmospheric confirmation signals in trade winds and global circulation patterns are present but weak. marking an El Niño event. Given significant warmth with depth in the Pacific, continuation of weak El Niño is most likely over the next several months.
After six months of limbo, the equatorial Pacific has belatedly tipped past +0.5C threshold, with atmospheric confirmation signals, marking an El Niño event. This event remains a weak +ENSO based in the central Pacific. No major further warming and a continuation of weak El Niño is the most likely trajectory over the next two months.
An official El Niño declaration remains unlikely in the short term, and our model has changed little from a forecast of continued neutral-positive conditions into the spring since January.
The warm SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have changed little overall since early October, and remain near or just above the +0.5C threshold marking an El Niño event. Our model has moved lower with the maximum strength of the El Niño and weakens SST anomalies toward warm-neutral in the next 1-2 months.