The Pacific has cooled slightly since April, with more rapid cooling beneath the surface indicative of trends into summer. Overall, global circulation patterns continue to reflect ENSO neutral conditions, albeit with a stronger than normal subtropical jet in the eastern Pacific. WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer output for May is a bit more hedged than last month’s on the potential for late summer or fall La Niña development. Our model suggests that observed cooling will persist into mid-summer, followed by an extended period of cool-neutral anomalies.
El Niño Outlooks
The Pacific has changed little in March and early April, warm-neutral anomalies remaining in place. Overall, global circulation patterns continue to reflect ENSO neutral conditions, with a slight lingering tilt towards Nino-ish influences as reflected by a strong subtropical jet.
The Pacific warmed slightly in November overall, but atmospheric and oceanic conditions still reflect a warm-neutral ENSO state. WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer output expects that ENSO will stay in neutral conditions into early 2020, with El Nino odds increasing a bit into the spring months.
Our model is unchanged in expecting continued ENSO-neutral conditions into early spring 2020.
The Pacific is currently split between lingering warmth west and coolness in the east, and atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect a neutral ENSO state. WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer output is little changed in October, using September inputs. We remain confident that ENSO will stay in neutral conditions through the rest of 2019 and into early 2020.
WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer model is little changed in September. We remain confident that ENSO stays in neutral through fall, with El Niño slightly more likely than a La Niña over the winter but ENSO neutral expected into early 2020.
The 2019 El Niño is officially gone as NOAA has declared the end of a weak ENSO-positive event as of last week. The Pacific is currently split between lingering warmth west and an almost Niña-like coolness in the east, and atmospheric conditions are generally reflecting a neutral ENSO state. We remain confident that ENSO will stay neutral conditions through fall.
Weak El Niño conditions continue, mainly focused across the central and western Pacific. The past month has seen a volatility rollercoaster in El Niño indices, as weak atmospheric feedback to this non-traditional +ENSO leaves the event close to collapse in early summer.
The Pacific remains in official El Niño conditions, with the warmest anomalies remaining in the central rather than the eastern Pacific. Atmospheric confirmation signals in trade winds are still weak, and warm water at depth in the central Pacific has moderated significantly in the last month as upwelling has increased.