There remains around a 90% chance of a hyperactive 2024 hurricane season with at least two-thirds more tropical activity than normal, and a most likely outcome of over twice the average activity.
Atlantic Hurricane Season First Look: March 2024 by Dr. Ryan Truchelut – issued 22 March 2024 If you enjoy this outlook, consider supporting WeatherTiger’s Hurricane Watch….
Nino3.4 SST anomalies moderated to around -0.5C below normal in early July, but an increase in trade wind strength has been restrengthening the event in the last few weeks. Nina conditions will remain in place through fall, with the pattern progression of last year’s event continuing to be a good guide for 2022’s trajectory.
WeatherTiger’s initial forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season offers limited hope of more typical threats in the year ahead. Our seasonal forecasting algorithm projects a most likely outcome of around 155% of average activity.
Nino3.4 SST anomalies are hovering around 1C below normal as weak to moderate La Nina conditions persist into mid-spring. WeatherTiger’s modeling continues to suggest a slow drift towards cool-neutral conditions over the summer, though a continuation of La Nina is now more likely than not through fall.
It’s time for WeatherTiger’s look back on the 2021 hurricane season, which again brought misery to the Gulf Coast, this time while Jeff Bezos took short, pointless trips to space.
El Niño Outlook for September 2021
Two factors have strongest historical relationship with late season tropical activity: Atlantic SSTs, and El Niño/La Niña state in the Pacific. Both Atlantic and Pacific support an extended hurricane season in fall 2021, but are fortunately not as favorable as they were in heading into late 2020.
WeatherTiger’s August Atlantic hurricane season outlook is out now. It continues to call for an active season, with most likely ACE ~50% above normal. Analogs suggest steering may favor elevated U.S. and Florida landfall risks in October. Overall: get ready. Tropical go-time is almost here.