Articles by Ryan Truchelut

Atlantic Hurricane Season First Look for April 2022

WeatherTiger’s initial forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season offers limited hope of more typical threats in the year ahead. Our seasonal forecasting algorithm projects a most likely outcome of around 155% of average activity.

El Niño Outlook for April 2022

Nino3.4 SST anomalies are hovering around 1C below normal as weak to moderate La Nina conditions persist into mid-spring. WeatherTiger’s modeling continues to suggest a slow drift towards cool-neutral conditions over the summer, though a continuation of La Nina is now more likely than not through fall.

2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Fall Outlook

Two factors have strongest historical relationship with late season tropical activity: Atlantic SSTs, and El Niño/La Niña state in the Pacific. Both Atlantic and Pacific support an extended hurricane season in fall 2021, but are fortunately not as favorable as they were in heading into late 2020.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: August 2021

WeatherTiger’s August Atlantic hurricane season outlook is out now. It continues to call for an active season, with most likely ACE ~50% above normal. Analogs suggest steering may favor elevated U.S. and Florida landfall risks in October. Overall: get ready. Tropical go-time is almost here.

El Niño Outlook for July 2021

True neutral ENSO conditions are in place in the Pacific, with SST anomalies in the Nino3.4 region drifting around zero in June and early July. Continued neutral or cool-neutral conditions are likely through the summer, and it is now clear that a new La Nina will not develop in time to influence the peak of U.S growing season.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: June 2021

WeatherTiger’s expectations for the 2021 hurricane season shifted higher over the last two months, but remain shy of last spring’s (accurate) prediction for a hyperactive 2020. The most likely outcome is tropical activity around 40% above the average hurricane season.

El Niño Outlook for May 2021

While the 2020-21 La Nina has not officially ended, observations show that the
central Pacific SSTs have reverted to near normal over the last few weeks, bringing
the event to at least a temporary end. Neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist
through early summer.