The Pacific warmed slightly in November overall, but atmospheric and oceanic conditions still reflect a warm-neutral ENSO state. WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer output expects that ENSO will stay in neutral conditions into early 2020, with El Nino odds increasing a bit into the spring months.
The 2010s were a decade of contrasts for Atlantic hurricanes. Despite darkest timeline storms like Sandy, Irma, and Michael, it was an era of remarkable luck for the continental U.S. coast. We’re taking stock of the 2010s and applying the lessons learned to understand what the U.S. can expect from the hurricane seasons of the 2020s and beyond.
Our model is unchanged in expecting continued ENSO-neutral conditions into early spring 2020.
The Pacific is currently split between lingering warmth west and coolness in the east, and atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect a neutral ENSO state. WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer output is little changed in October, using September inputs. We remain confident that ENSO will stay in neutral conditions through the rest of 2019 and into early 2020.
Winter 2019-20 has slightly above normal chances of elevated snow/ice in the central U.S. and Great Lakes and below normal odds of elevated snow/ice in the Deep South and mid-Atlantic. Neutral ENSO conditions with a deep split between a cool eastern and warm western Pacific, plus a warm “blob” in the NE Pacific will be key influences this year leading to a neutral or cool tilt in eastern U.S. temperatures.
The 2019 El Niño is no more. Sign up for a free trial to check out our December ENSO discussion and predictive analytics model…
The 2019 El Niño is officially gone as NOAA has declared the end of a weak ENSO-positive event as of last week. The Pacific is currently split between lingering warmth west and an almost Niña-like coolness in the east, and atmospheric conditions are generally reflecting a neutral ENSO state. We remain confident that ENSO will stay neutral conditions through fall.
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON MOST LIKELY TO SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY… Outlook Overview WeatherTiger’s August update to our 2019 hurricane season is…