The 2019 El Niño is no more. Sign up for a free trial to check out our September ENSO discussion and predictive analytics model…
Articles by Ryan Truchelut
The 2019 El Niño is officially gone as NOAA has declared the end of a weak ENSO-positive event as of last week. The Pacific is currently split between lingering warmth west and an almost Niña-like coolness in the east, and atmospheric conditions are generally reflecting a neutral ENSO state. We remain confident that ENSO will stay neutral conditions through fall.
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON MOST LIKELY TO SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY… Outlook Overview WeatherTiger’s August update to our 2019 hurricane season is…
WeatherTiger’s June update for the 2019 hurricane season is for slightly elevated odds of an above normal hurricane season. The median outcome of our forecast model is about 120% of average hurricane season activity, or around 15 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
WeatherTiger’s first look at the 2019 hurricane season is for near even chances of an above, below, or near normal year. The median of our forecast is about 105% of average hurricane season activity, or around seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. This is slightly more aggressive than some other recently issued forecasts, likely due to our model’s skepticism towards the ongoing El Niño.
The equatorial Pacific remains in officially declared El Niño conditions, with the warmest anomalies relative to normal in the central rather than the eastern Pacific, as has been the case since last fall. Atmospheric confirmation signals in trade winds and global circulation patterns are present but weak. marking an El Niño event. Given significant warmth with depth in the Pacific, continuation of weak El Niño is most likely over the next several months.
Spring 2019 begins with much of the central U.S. growing region experiencing saturated soils due to excessive winter precipitation. With the historical primacy of summer conditions in mind, leading indicators of spring conditions suggest precipitation will be normal to somewhat above normal in the Midwest through May, but that extreme rainfall in line with flood years like 1993 is not anticipated.
After six months of limbo, the equatorial Pacific has belatedly tipped past +0.5C threshold, with atmospheric confirmation signals, marking an El Niño event. This event remains a weak +ENSO based in the central Pacific. No major further warming and a continuation of weak El Niño is the most likely trajectory over the next two months.