El Niño Outlooks

El Niño Outlook for October 2019

The Pacific is currently split between lingering warmth west and coolness in the east, and atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect a neutral ENSO state. WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer output is little changed in October, using September inputs. We remain confident that ENSO will stay in neutral conditions through the rest of 2019 and into early 2020.

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El Niño Outlook for January 2019

The warm SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have changed little overall since early October, and remain near or just above the +0.5C threshold marking an El Niño event. Our model has moved lower with the maximum strength of the El Niño and weakens SST anomalies toward warm-neutral in the next 1-2 months.