The Pacific has cooled slightly since April, with more rapid cooling beneath the surface indicative of trends into summer. Overall, global circulation patterns continue to reflect ENSO neutral conditions, albeit with a stronger than normal subtropical jet in the eastern Pacific. WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer output for May is a bit more hedged than last month’s on the potential for late summer or fall La Niña development. Our model suggests that observed cooling will persist into mid-summer, followed by an extended period of cool-neutral anomalies.Read More
El Niño Outlooks
The Pacific remains in official El Niño conditions, with the warmest anomalies remaining in the central rather than the eastern Pacific. Atmospheric confirmation signals in trade winds are still weak, and warm water at depth in the central Pacific has moderated significantly in the last month as upwelling has increased.