El Niño Outlooks

El Niño Outlook for August 2019

The 2019 El Niño is officially gone as NOAA has declared the end of a weak ENSO-positive event as of last week. The Pacific is currently split between lingering warmth west and an almost Niña-like coolness in the east, and atmospheric conditions are generally reflecting a neutral ENSO state. We remain confident that ENSO will stay neutral conditions through fall.

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El Niño Outlook for November 2018

With the ocean and atmosphere system now locking into a more coupled +ENSO pattern in October, our ENSO Whisperer model has nudged higher with the maximum strength of the event and longer with the duration of El Niño, which is now predicted to last into the spring while attenuating slightly.