With the ocean and atmosphere system now locking into a more coupled +ENSO pattern in October, our ENSO Whisperer model has nudged higher with the maximum strength of the event and longer with the duration of El Niño, which is now predicted to last into the spring while attenuating slightly.
El Niño Outlooks
The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral-positive state. While atmospheric measures of ENSO state have shifted slowly towards Niño-like teleconnections, SST anomalies themselves have changed little over the past 6 weeks. This favors slow development of a Central Pacific +ENSO event over the next 2-3 months, per our ENSO Whisperer model.
The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral-positive state. While atmospheric measures of ENSO state are slowly but steadily shifting towards Niño-like teleconnections, SST anomalies themselves cooled slightly over the past 6 weeks. This favors the slower development of a Central Pacific +ENSO event this fall.
The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral state at present. However, atmospheric measures of ENSO state are beginning to tilt heavily towards Niño-like patterns. This trend is likely to intensify over the next six weeks as the Pacific flirts with weak El Niño territory in August.
The equatorial Pacific is in a neutral state, with atmospheric measures of ENSO divided between Niña and Niño-like patterns. WeatherTiger’s proprietary ENSO Whisperer is a little quicker to move the Pacific towards a weak El Niño, with the development of a weak or moderate +ENSO over the fall and winter of 2018 continues to be our preferred forecast solution.
Observations and model data support an inactive ENSO pattern for 3-4 months, with WeatherTiger’s proprietary ENSO Whisperer model continuing to favor the development of a weak +ENSO event early in the fall.
Observations and model data support at most a neutral-positive ENSO state through the summer. WeatherTiger’s proprietary ENSO Whisperer model has shifted cooler in the medium-range to reflect increased chances of continued neutral conditions as the North American planting and growing seasons approach.
A weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, reduced in intensity since last month but still not having weakened back into ENSO neutral conditions. WeatherTiger’s March modeling continues to suggest that any transition to an El Nino will not be rapid, and neutral conditions are favored through much of the summer. This indicates that ENSO is less likely to be a major factor this U.S. growing season.
An eastern Pacific-based moderate La Niña event continues but has very likely peaked in intensity in December/January and is starting to weaken. WeatherTiger’s February modeling shifts slightly in the direction of a potential summer El Niño from our previous several runs.
WeatherTiger’s January modeling is little changed from our previous several runs, continuing to suggest that La Niña peaks in January and begins to moderate in February, with neutral-negative conditions in March and April and true neutral conditions in May and June.