An official El Niño declaration remains unlikely in the short term, and our model has changed little from a forecast of continued neutral-positive conditions into the spring since January.
El Niño Outlooks
The warm SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have changed little overall since early October, and remain near or just above the +0.5C threshold marking an El Niño event. Our model has moved lower with the maximum strength of the El Niño and weakens SST anomalies toward warm-neutral in the next 1-2 months.
The equatorial Pacific remains in El Niño territory, a warmth continuing to be concentrated in the Central Pacific region. There has been a slow warming over the past several weeks, and Pacific warmth will likely peak over the next few months. The ocean and atmosphere system has been slow to lock into a classic +ENSO pattern, and our model has nudged lower with the maximum strength of the El Niño, which is now predicted to fade in the spring.
With the ocean and atmosphere system now locking into a more coupled +ENSO pattern in October, our ENSO Whisperer model has nudged higher with the maximum strength of the event and longer with the duration of El Niño, which is now predicted to last into the spring while attenuating slightly.
The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral-positive state. While atmospheric measures of ENSO state have shifted slowly towards Niño-like teleconnections, SST anomalies themselves have changed little over the past 6 weeks. This favors slow development of a Central Pacific +ENSO event over the next 2-3 months, per our ENSO Whisperer model.
The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral-positive state. While atmospheric measures of ENSO state are slowly but steadily shifting towards Niño-like teleconnections, SST anomalies themselves cooled slightly over the past 6 weeks. This favors the slower development of a Central Pacific +ENSO event this fall.
The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral state at present. However, atmospheric measures of ENSO state are beginning to tilt heavily towards Niño-like patterns. This trend is likely to intensify over the next six weeks as the Pacific flirts with weak El Niño territory in August.
The equatorial Pacific is in a neutral state, with atmospheric measures of ENSO divided between Niña and Niño-like patterns. WeatherTiger’s proprietary ENSO Whisperer is a little quicker to move the Pacific towards a weak El Niño, with the development of a weak or moderate +ENSO over the fall and winter of 2018 continues to be our preferred forecast solution.
Observations and model data support an inactive ENSO pattern for 3-4 months, with WeatherTiger’s proprietary ENSO Whisperer model continuing to favor the development of a weak +ENSO event early in the fall.
Observations and model data support at most a neutral-positive ENSO state through the summer. WeatherTiger’s proprietary ENSO Whisperer model has shifted cooler in the medium-range to reflect increased chances of continued neutral conditions as the North American planting and growing seasons approach.