WeatherTiger’s June outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 75-80% chance of an above average year, with a 15-20% chance of near-normal and just a 5% chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast is about 180% of average hurricane season activity, or around 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
WeatherTiger’s June outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 75-80% chance of an above average year, with a 15-20% chance of near-normal and just a 5% chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast is about 180% of average hurricane season activity, or around 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
WeatherTiger’s June outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 75-80% chance of an above average year, with a 15-20% chance of near-normal and just a 5% chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast is about 180% of average hurricane season activity, or around 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer June output is both quicker with La Niña development and more powerful with its eventual intensity. Our model suggests that an official Niña is favored to develop in August or September, with more cooling through fall. Confidence in this forecast is notably higher than last month.
WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer model is little changed in September. We remain confident that ENSO stays in neutral through fall, with El Niño slightly more likely than a La Niña over the winter but ENSO neutral expected into early 2020.
Weak El Niño conditions continue, mainly focused across the central and western Pacific. The past month has seen a volatility rollercoaster in El Niño indices, as weak atmospheric feedback to this non-traditional +ENSO leaves the event close to collapse in early summer.
The Pacific remains in official El Niño conditions, with the warmest anomalies remaining in the central rather than the eastern Pacific. Atmospheric confirmation signals in trade winds are still weak, and warm water at depth in the central Pacific has moderated significantly in the last month as upwelling has increased.
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Observations and model data support an inactive ENSO pattern for 3-4 months, with WeatherTiger’s proprietary ENSO Whisperer model continuing to favor the development of a weak +ENSO event early in the fall.
An eastern Pacific-based moderate La Niña event continues but has very likely peaked in intensity in December/January and is starting to weaken. WeatherTiger’s February modeling shifts slightly in the direction of a potential summer El Niño from our previous several runs.