WeatherTiger’s outlook for the fall months of the Atlantic hurricane season is for above average chances of elevated activity. We expect net ACE to be at least 50% above normal, and it could easily be twice or more typical values.
WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer September output is a little more aggressive with La Nina strength than previous runs, but has not changed in terms of the maintenance of moderate La Nina into early 2021. Model confidence remains high through the forecast period.
2:10 a.m. CDT: Laura roars north into SW Louisiana; wrapping live coverage The 2 a.m. position estimate from the NHC drops the maximum sustained…
The eastern Pacific remained cold in July, while the central Pacific finally began to trend steadily cooler over the course of the month. WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer August output is a little faster to cross the threshold of formal La Nina, showing a 75% chance of -ENSO conditions by September.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for August 2020 by Dr. Ryan Truchelut – issued 6 August 2020 Key Points WeatherTiger’s August outlook for the 2020 hurricane…
WeatherTiger’s August outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 85-90% chance of an above average year, with a 10-15% chance of near-normal and almost no chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast remains about 180% of average hurricane season activity, or around 21-24 named storms, 9-12 hurricanes and 4-6 major hurricanes.
WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer July output is a little slower to cross the threshold of formal La Nina, showing the Pacific remaining in cool-neutral conditions through September and developing a moderate La Nina in the fall. However, the earlier development of La Nina is well within the forecast probabilities.
WeatherTiger’s June outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 75-80% chance of an above average year, with a 15-20% chance of near-normal and just a 5% chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast is about 180% of average hurricane season activity, or around 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
WeatherTiger’s June outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 75-80% chance of an above average year, with a 15-20% chance of near-normal and just a 5% chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast is about 180% of average hurricane season activity, or around 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer June output is both quicker with La Niña development and more powerful with its eventual intensity. Our model suggests that an official Niña is favored to develop in August or September, with more cooling through fall. Confidence in this forecast is notably higher than last month.