Articles by WeatherTiger Czar

El Niño Outlook for December 2022

Nino3.4 SST anomalies are slightly less than 1C below normal. Moderate La Nina conditions are likely to persist for a few more months before rapidly warming in March and April.

El Niño Outlook for May 2022

While long-range ENSO forecasts have limited skill at this time of year, observations and models are in good agreement on a third summer of La Nina.

Fall Hurricane Outlook for Late September 2020

WeatherTiger’s outlook for the fall months of the Atlantic hurricane season is for above average chances of elevated activity.  We expect net ACE to be at least 50% above normal, and it could easily be twice or more typical values.

El Niño Outlook for September 2020

WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer September output is a little more aggressive with La Nina strength than previous runs, but has not changed in terms of the maintenance of moderate La Nina into early 2021. Model confidence remains high through the forecast period.

Hurricane Laura Live Blog

2:10 a.m. CDT: Laura roars north into SW Louisiana; wrapping live coverage The 2 a.m. position estimate from the NHC drops the maximum sustained…

El Niño Outlook for August 2020

The eastern Pacific remained cold in July, while the central Pacific finally began to trend steadily cooler over the course of the month. WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer August output is a little faster to cross the threshold of formal La Nina, showing a 75% chance of -ENSO conditions by September.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for August 2020

WeatherTiger’s August outlook for the 2020 hurricane season is for a 85-90% chance of an above average year, with a 10-15% chance of near-normal and almost no chance of below-normal cumulative activity. The median of our forecast remains about 180% of average hurricane season activity, or around 21-24 named storms, 9-12 hurricanes and 4-6 major hurricanes. 

El Niño Outlook for July 2020

WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer July output is a little slower to cross the threshold of formal La Nina, showing the Pacific remaining in cool-neutral conditions through September and developing a moderate La Nina in the fall. However, the earlier development of La Nina is well within the forecast probabilities.