WeatherTiger’s U.S. Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2026
With a Super Niño following last year’s calmer U.S. hurricane season, can lightning not strike twice in 2026?
With a Super Niño following last year’s calmer U.S. hurricane season, can lightning not strike twice in 2026?
Hurricane Season 2025 is off to a slow start, but there’s a lot of season left to go— nearly 95% of it in ACE terms, to be precise. What do the August to October peak months of hurricane season hold?
With closer to average sea surface temperatures versus last year, WeatherTiger’s forecast models are predicting a most likely outcome of U.S. landfall activity near to slightly above normal. That good news is relative, as there is still about a 60% chance of two or more hurricane strikes somewhere in the continental U.S. in 2025.
An early assessment of what hopefully will be a less extreme hurricane season, though in 2025 there are no guarantees…
WeatherTiger’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2024 by Dr. Ryan Truchelut – issued 22 May 2024 If you enjoy this outlook, consider supporting WeatherTiger’s Hurricane…
Our model now projects 150 ACE units, which is about 50% more than an average season, and 50 ACE higher than our late May outlook.
Hurricane season 2023 is a clash between El Nino and very warm water in the Atlantic. Find out what WeatherTiger’s projections are for the year ahead, and what the chances are of U.S. and Florida hurricane landfall during the season.
An extended period of weaker or reversed trade winds will continue to drive warming and emergence of the subsurface pool of Central Pacific warm water, and the formal initiation of an El Nino event is likely in the next month.
La Niña’s demise potentially sets up a quieter Atlantic hurricane season in 2023, but complications loom.
The 2020-23 La Nina event has finally ended as of early March, though after a period of rapid warming in the Nino3.4 region mid-month, SST anomalies have plateaued very close to normal.