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Articles by WeatherTiger Czar
Observations and model data support an inactive ENSO pattern for 3-4 months, with WeatherTiger’s proprietary ENSO Whisperer model continuing to favor the development of a weak +ENSO event early in the fall.
An eastern Pacific-based moderate La Niña event continues but has very likely peaked in intensity in December/January and is starting to weaken. WeatherTiger’s February modeling shifts slightly in the direction of a potential summer El Niño from our previous several runs.
The equatorial Pacific has cooled quite a bit in the last month due to a strong surge in easterly trade winds, and ENSO is beginning to tip into a weak La Niña state.
The latest dynamical ENSO models are showing a strong consensus for continued warm-neutral conditions over the rest of 2017. This is in good agreement with WeatherTiger’s July modeling, which shows a solidly neutral state through year’s end.