WeatherTiger’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for August 2023
Our model now projects 150 ACE units, which is about 50% more than an average season, and 50 ACE higher than our late May outlook.
Articles by WeatherTiger Czar
WeatherTiger’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2023
Hurricane season 2023 is a clash between El Nino and very warm water in the Atlantic. Find out what WeatherTiger’s projections are for the year ahead, and what the chances are of U.S. and Florida hurricane landfall during the season.
El Niño Outlook for June 2023
An extended period of weaker or reversed trade winds will continue to drive warming and emergence of the subsurface pool of Central Pacific warm water, and the formal initiation of an El Nino event is likely in the next month.
Atlantic Hurricane Season First Look for April 2023
La Niña’s demise potentially sets up a quieter Atlantic hurricane season in 2023, but complications loom.
El Niño Outlook for April 2023
The 2020-23 La Nina event has finally ended as of early March, though after a period of rapid warming in the Nino3.4 region mid-month, SST anomalies have plateaued very close to normal.
El Niño Outlook for December 2022
Nino3.4 SST anomalies are slightly less than 1C below normal. Moderate La Nina conditions are likely to persist for a few more months before rapidly warming in March and April.
2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Introducing WeatherTiger’s real-time seasonal model, predicting high chances of a busy year.
El Niño Outlook for May 2022
While long-range ENSO forecasts have limited skill at this time of year, observations and models are in good agreement on a third summer of La Nina.
Fall Hurricane Outlook for Late September 2020
WeatherTiger’s outlook for the fall months of the Atlantic hurricane season is for above average chances of elevated activity. We expect net ACE to be at least 50% above normal, and it could easily be twice or more typical values.
El Niño Outlook for September 2020
WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer September output is a little more aggressive with La Nina strength than previous runs, but has not changed in terms of the maintenance of moderate La Nina into early 2021. Model confidence remains high through the forecast period.