Hurricane season 2023 is a clash between El Nino and very warm water in the Atlantic. Find out what WeatherTiger’s projections are for the year ahead, and what the chances are of U.S. and Florida hurricane landfall during the season.
An extended period of weaker or reversed trade winds will continue to drive warming and emergence of the subsurface pool of Central Pacific warm water, and the formal initiation of an El Nino event is likely in the next month.
La Niña’s demise potentially sets up a quieter Atlantic hurricane season in 2023, but complications loom.
The 2020-23 La Nina event has finally ended as of early March, though after a period of rapid warming in the Nino3.4 region mid-month, SST anomalies have plateaued very close to normal.
Nino3.4 SST anomalies are slightly less than 1C below normal. Moderate La Nina conditions are likely to persist for a few more months before rapidly warming in March and April.
Introducing WeatherTiger’s real-time seasonal model, predicting high chances of a busy year.
While long-range ENSO forecasts have limited skill at this time of year, observations and models are in good agreement on a third summer of La Nina.
WeatherTiger’s outlook for the fall months of the Atlantic hurricane season is for above average chances of elevated activity. We expect net ACE to be at least 50% above normal, and it could easily be twice or more typical values.
WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer September output is a little more aggressive with La Nina strength than previous runs, but has not changed in terms of the maintenance of moderate La Nina into early 2021. Model confidence remains high through the forecast period.
2:10 a.m. CDT: Laura roars north into SW Louisiana; wrapping live coverage The 2 a.m. position estimate from the NHC drops the maximum sustained…