Articles by WeatherTiger Czar

El Niño Outlook for September 2019 | WeatherTiger

WeatherTiger’s ENSO Whisperer model is little changed in September. We remain confident that ENSO stays in neutral through fall, with El Niño slightly more likely than a La Niña over the winter but ENSO neutral expected into early 2020.

El Niño Outlook for June 2019

Weak El Niño conditions continue, mainly focused across the central and western Pacific. The past month has seen a volatility rollercoaster in El Niño indices, as weak atmospheric feedback to this non-traditional +ENSO leaves the event close to collapse in early summer.

El Niño Outlook for May 2019

The Pacific remains in official El Niño conditions, with the warmest anomalies remaining in the central rather than the eastern Pacific. Atmospheric confirmation signals in trade winds are still weak, and warm water at depth in the central Pacific has moderated significantly in the last month as upwelling has increased.

El Niño Outlook for May 2018

Observations and model data support an inactive ENSO pattern for 3-4 months, with WeatherTiger’s proprietary ENSO Whisperer model continuing to favor the development of a weak +ENSO event early in the fall.

El Niño Outlook for February 2018

An eastern Pacific-based moderate La Niña event continues but has very likely peaked in intensity in December/January and is starting to weaken. WeatherTiger’s February modeling shifts slightly in the direction of a potential summer El Niño from our previous several runs.

El Niño Outlook for September 2017

The equatorial Pacific has cooled quite a bit in the last month due to a strong surge in easterly trade winds, and ENSO is beginning to tip into a weak La Niña state.

El Niño Outlook for July 2017

The latest dynamical ENSO models are showing a strong consensus for continued warm-neutral conditions over the rest of 2017. This is in good agreement with WeatherTiger’s July modeling, which shows a solidly neutral state through year’s end.