ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON MOST LIKELY TO SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY… Outlook Overview WeatherTiger’s August update to our 2019 hurricane season is…
WeatherTiger’s June update for the 2019 hurricane season is for slightly elevated odds of an above normal hurricane season. The median outcome of our forecast model is about 120% of average hurricane season activity, or around 15 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
WeatherTiger’s first look at the 2019 hurricane season is for near even chances of an above, below, or near normal year. The median of our forecast is about 105% of average hurricane season activity, or around seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. This is slightly more aggressive than some other recently issued forecasts, likely due to our model’s skepticism towards the ongoing El Niño.
WeatherTiger’s August update to our 2018 hurricane season presents only minor changes from our initial forecast issued in late May for overall activity of between two-thirds and three-quarters of an average year. Cooler than average waters in key regions of the Atlantic, a developing El Niño in the Pacific, and much stronger than average trade winds in the Caribbean this summer confirm these signals.
A look ahead to the 2018 hurricane season reveals a below normal year in terms of total activity and U.S. landfall risk is the most likely outcome. Uncertainty remains elevated at this lead time due to lingering questions on how rapidly cooling Atlantic SSTs will evolve over the summer.
A final update to WeatherTiger’s 2017 hurricane season update for August shows that an above normal year in terms of total activity and U.S. landfall risk is the most likely outcome. Key considerations including sea surface temperature anomalies, wind patterns, and steering currents are in relatively good agreement for this projection.
A look ahead to the 2017 hurricane season for April shows that a near normal year in terms of total activity and U.S. landfall risk is the most likely outcome. Uncertainty remains elevated at this lead time due to lingering questions on how El Niño will evolve in the coming months.
The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to have somewhat above average U.S. tropical cyclone landfall activity, as this winter’s El Niño rapidly gives way to a developing La Niña in the eastern Pacific. Yet, potential forecast pitfalls abound. Get the very latest, as well as a whole host of “Independence Day” references, from seasonal forecasting expert Dr. Ryan Truchelut.
The WeatherTiger outlook for the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is for well below average landfall risks to the continental United States, especially with regard to major hurricanes, due to a developing strong El Nino event.
NEAR NORMAL SEASON EXPECTED IN ATLANTIC BASIN DESPITE DEVELOPING EL NINO, WITH SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE RISKS OF U.S. LANDFALLS… The Quick Read The 2014…