Currently, the equatorial Pacific remains in a borderline weak La Niña state. However, the atmospheric measures of ENSO continue lagging the ocean, and though most of them have ticked a bit more towards Niña-like conditions in the past month, continuation of this trend is not certain.
El Niño Outlooks
The transition to weak atmospheric La Niña conditions is no longer expected this fall. The chances of even a weak La Niña developing over the winter of 2016-17 are around 35%, with the most likely outcome as projected by WeatherTiger’s exclusive ENSO Whisperer forecast model four to six months of continued neutral-negative conditions followed by a spring trend towards true neutral patterns.
The transition to at least weak atmospheric La Niña conditions is likely to gradually occur over the next one to two months. The slow evolution towards -ENSO further reduces chances of a strong La Niña developing over the winter of 2016-17.
The equatorial Pacific is trending toward La Niña conditions, but it remains in a neutral-ENSO state by both atmospheric and oceanic measures for now.
The rate of transition from El Niño to La Niña slowed in June, but the arrival of a weak La Niña remains likely by late summer 2016.
El Niño has dominated global weather patterns thus far in 2016. However, based on trends in the last several weeks, the summer and fall of 2016 are extremely likely to be in the grasp of a developing La Niña event. Read on for the latest probabilistic forecast and a discussion of how summer temperature and precipitation anomalies are shaping up in U.S. growing regions.
El Niño has dominated global weather patterns thus far in 2016. But based on trends in the last four weeks, the late summer and fall of 2016 look to be in the grasp of a developing La Niña event. Read on for the latest probabilistic forecast and some discussion of how summer temperature and precipitation anomalies are shaping up in U.S. growing regions.
El Niño has weakened somewhat in the past six weeks, but the transition to La Niña conditions is proceeding more slowly than forecast. This means that wet and warm El Niño-like conditions are likely to generally persist through the planting season.