Hurricane Matthew ThreatFocus for October 7th
•Matthew is a strong category 2 hurricane this evening, located 40 miles east-northeast of Jacksonville with maximum sustained winds of around 110mph.
•Matthew passed around 30 miles offshore much of the Florida east coast today, spreading hurricane force winds and devastating surge from Cape Canaveral north to Jacksonville. Similar impacts, including up to 10' of life-threatening storm surge and winds gusting from 80 to 100mph can be expected over the next 24 hours from Jacksonville north to Wilmington, North Carolina as Matthew curves northeast and then eastward. On this path, Savannah and Charleston will see the worst effects of the storm around midnight and sunrise, respectively. Additionally, 10-15" of rain in the coastal Carolinas will exacerbate already serious flooding problems there.
•Matthew is now expected to turn back south and move towards the central Bahamas again early next week, but unfavorable shear will weaken it dramatically as it does. There is a possibility (30%) that Matthew drifts back towards south Florida Tuesday or Wednesday, but if it approaches Florida again, it is very unlikely to do so as anything other than a weak low that increases rain chances but has little other impacts. It is an oddity to be sure, but not really a cause for concern.
•Normal weekly Atlantic tropical updates will resume on Monday, which will include an update on a hopefully much-weakened Matthew at that time. In the meantime, please follow us on Facebook or Twitter for shorter updates and breaking news.
Quote of the week: "All models are wrong, but some are useful." -George Box
- Hurricane Matthew ThreatFocus for October 7th
- October 6th ThreatFocus for Major Hurricane Matthew
- Major Hurricane Matthew ThreatFocus for October 5th
- October 4th Threat Focus for Major Hurricane Matthew
- October 3rd Threat Focus for Major Hurricane Matthew
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- Threat Focus for Tropical Storm Matthew (Sample)
- Threat Focus for Tropical Storm Hermine (Sample)
- Threat Focus for Potential Tropical Storm Colin
- Threat Focus for Tropical Storm Erika (Sample)
- Threat Focus for Hurricane Joaquin (Sample)
- Special Tropical Update on Hurricane Joaquin