An eastern Pacific-based moderate La Niña event continues but has very likely peaked in intensity in December/January and is starting to weaken. WeatherTiger’s February modeling shifts slightly in the direction of a potential summer El Niño from our previous several runs.Read More
El Niño Outlooks
The equatorial Pacific is officially in neutral ENSO conditions, showing neither a La Niña nor an El Niño state. There remains a great deal of uncertainty regarding the evolution of ENSO over the next six months, but we feel that evidence is mounting that the prospective developing El Niño will underperform expectations.