El Niño Outlooks

El Niño Outlook for September 2018

The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral-positive state. While atmospheric measures of ENSO state have shifted slowly towards Niño-like teleconnections, SST anomalies themselves have changed little over the past 6 weeks. This favors slow development of a Central Pacific +ENSO event over the next 2-3 months, per our ENSO Whisperer model.

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El Niño Outlook for November 2017

The equatorial Pacific remains on the borderline between neutral-negative conditions and a weak La Niña. WeatherTiger’s November modeling again trended modestly cooler this month, with chances of at least weak La Niña in place by year’s end now well over 75%.