El Niño Outlooks

El Niño Outlook for June 2017

After calling for at least moderate El Niño to develop by the summer throughout the spring, dynamical models are still backpedaling in favor of projecting a continuation of warm-neutral conditions. WeatherTiger’s June modeling is cooler again showing solid neutral conditions through year’s end.


El Niño Outlook for May 2017

The equatorial Pacific remains in neutral ENSO conditions, showing neither a La Niña nor an El Niño state. The uncertainty regarding the evolution of ENSO over the next six months is starting to decrease as evidence mounts that ENSO will remain in a neutral-positive state or only a very weak, marginal El Niño will develop in the next six months.


El Niño Outlook for April 2017

The equatorial Pacific is officially in neutral ENSO conditions, showing neither a La Niña nor an El Niño state. There remains a great deal of uncertainty regarding the evolution of ENSO over the next six months, but we feel that evidence is mounting that the prospective developing El Niño will underperform expectations.


El Niño Outlook for January-February 2017

Technically, the equatorial Pacific remains in a weak La Niña state, which was officially declared by NOAA in early November. However, atmospheric measures of ENSO continue lagging the ocean, and there has been no confirmation of that signal since the declaration. Instead, waters are warming in the central Pacific.


El Niño Outlook for November 2016

The transition to weak atmospheric La Niña conditions remains possible, but is not particularly expected. The chances of this minimal La Niña ending over the winter of 2016-17 are around 70%, with the most likely outcome as projected by WeatherTiger’s exclusive ENSO Whisperer forecast model three to five more months of continued neutral-negative conditions followed by a spring trend towards true neutral patterns.


El Niño Outlook for October 2016

Currently, the equatorial Pacific remains in a borderline weak La Niña state. However, the atmospheric measures of ENSO continue lagging the ocean, and though most of them have ticked a bit more towards Niña-like conditions in the past month, continuation of this trend is not certain.


El Niño Outlook for September 2016

The transition to weak atmospheric La Niña conditions is no longer expected this fall. The chances of even a weak La Niña developing over the winter of 2016-17 are around 35%, with the most likely outcome as projected by WeatherTiger’s exclusive ENSO Whisperer forecast model four to six months of continued neutral-negative conditions followed by a spring trend towards true neutral patterns.


El Niño Outlook for August 2016

The transition to at least weak atmospheric La Niña conditions is likely to gradually occur over the next one to two months. The slow evolution towards -ENSO further reduces chances of a strong La Niña developing over the winter of 2016-17.


El Niño Outlook for July 2016

The equatorial Pacific is trending toward La Niña conditions, but it remains in a neutral-ENSO state by both atmospheric and oceanic measures for now.


El Niño Outlook for June 2016

The rate of transition from El Niño to La Niña slowed in June, but the arrival of a weak La Niña remains likely by late summer 2016.