The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral-positive state. While atmospheric measures of ENSO state are slowly but steadily shifting towards Niño-like teleconnections, SST anomalies themselves cooled slightly over the past 6 weeks. This favors the slower development of a Central Pacific +ENSO event this fall.Read More
El Niño Outlooks
WeatherTiger’s October modeling has trended modestly cooler this month, with chances of at least a weak La Niña developing by December rising to well over 50%. La Niña is now likely to be strong enough to influence growing season precipitation distribution in South America, and potentially the U.S. winter pattern as well.