A weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, reduced in intensity since last month but still not having weakened back into ENSO neutral conditions. WeatherTiger’s March modeling continues to suggest that any transition to an El Nino will not be rapid, and neutral conditions are favored through much of the summer. This indicates that ENSO is less likely to be a major factor this U.S. growing season.Read More
El Niño Outlooks
The equatorial Pacific remains in neutral ENSO conditions, showing neither a La Niña nor an El Niño state. The uncertainty regarding the evolution of ENSO over the next six months is starting to decrease as evidence mounts that ENSO will remain in a neutral-positive state or only a very weak, marginal El Niño will develop in the next six months.