El Niño Outlooks

El Niño Outlook for November 2017

The equatorial Pacific remains on the borderline between neutral-negative conditions and a weak La Niña. WeatherTiger’s November modeling again trended modestly cooler this month, with chances of at least weak La Niña in place by year’s end now well over 75%.

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El Niño Outlook for November 2016

The transition to weak atmospheric La Niña conditions remains possible, but is not particularly expected. The chances of this minimal La Niña ending over the winter of 2016-17 are around 70%, with the most likely outcome as projected by WeatherTiger’s exclusive ENSO Whisperer forecast model three to five more months of continued neutral-negative conditions followed by a spring trend towards true neutral patterns.