The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral-positive state. While atmospheric measures of ENSO state have shifted slowly towards Niño-like teleconnections, SST anomalies themselves have changed little over the past 6 weeks. This favors slow development of a Central Pacific +ENSO event over the next 2-3 months, per our ENSO Whisperer model.Read More
El Niño Outlooks
The equatorial Pacific remains on the borderline between neutral-negative conditions and a weak La Niña. WeatherTiger’s November modeling again trended modestly cooler this month, with chances of at least weak La Niña in place by year’s end now well over 75%.